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Peramalanatauforecastingmerupakanalat bantu yang pentingdalamperencanaan yang efektifdanefisien. Avtur (Aviation Turbine Fuel) atau internasional lebih dikenal sebagai Jet A-1 adalah bahan bakar untuk jet atau turbo jet tipe pesawat (baik penuh jet jenis propulsi atau baling-baling satu). Avtur juga sendiri yang diproduksi di kilang Pertamina.Pertamina Aviation adalahpemasardanpenyediabahanbakarpenerbangandanbensinpenerbangandenganjaringan global. Pertamina Aviation telahberkontribusiterhadapindustripenerbangan regional selamalebihdari 50 tahundanmemainkanperanpentingdalamindustripenerbangan
PadakegiatanperamalanpermintaanAvtur,Moving Average (Rata-rata bergerak) adalahmetode peramalan perataannilaidenganmengambilsekelompoknilaipengamatan yang kemudiandicari rata-ratanya, lalu menggunakan rata-rata tersebutsebagairamalanuntukperiodeberikutnya. MetodeSingle Exponential Smoothing merupakanpengembangandarimetodeMoving Average, metodeMoving Averagesmemangmudahmenghitungnyaakantetapimetodeinimemberikanbobot yang samapadasetiap data. UntukmengatasihalinimakadigunakanmetodeSingle Exponential Smoothing. BegitujugadenganmetodeSimple Linear Regressiondigunakandalammelakukanperamalanataupunprediksitentangkarakteristikkualitasmaupunkuantitas.
PenelitianinimenggunakanmetodeMoving Average (MA), Single Exponential Smoothing (SES)danSimple Linear Regression (SLR)untukmeramalkankebutuhanpermintaanAvtur. Denganmenggunakanmetode SES parameter ? = 0.8 inikemudiandapatmenentukantingkaterror parameter MAD terkecildengannilai MAD = 78.470. Kemudiandenganmetode SLR untuk parameter MSE terkecildengannilai MSE = 11.591.890.000. Sedangkanuntuk parameter MAPE metode SES parameter ? = 0.8 memberikan MAPE terkecildengannilai MAPE = 0.39. Berdasarkan parameter yang optimal makadapatdisimpulkanmetode SES parameter ? = 0.8 untukbulanJanuari 2016 adalah 389.510 bbl.

Kata Kunci : Forecasting, Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Simple Linear Regression, Avtur

Forecasting is an important tool in planning effective and efficient. Aviation Turbine Fuel (Avtur) or internationally better known as Jet A-1 is fuel for jet or turbo jet type of plane (either full of jet propulsion type or the propeller one). Avtur is also self produced at Pertamina refineries. Pertamina Aviation is a marketer and provider of aviation fuel and aviation gasoline with a global network .Pertamina Aviation has been contributed to the regional airline industry for over 50 years and played an important role in the aviation industry
In the forecasting demand Avtur, Moving Average (The average move) is the method of forecasting smoothing the value of taking a group of the observations which was looking for on average, and then used an average of the forecast for the next period. Method of Single Exponential Smoothing is the development of Moving Average, the method of Moving Averages are easy to calculate but it provides the same qualities on every data. To overcome this, then used method (Exponential Smoothing. The method of Simple Linear Regression be used in forecasting and prediction about the characteristics of the quality and quantity.
This study uses Moving Average (MA), Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Simple Linear Regression to forecast the demand for Avtur. By usingthe method of SES the parameters of ? = 0.8 is the able to the determine the level of error parameter MAD the small with a value of MAD is 78.470. Then, with that of the SLR to the MSE the smallest with a value of MSE is 11.591.890.000. Meanwhile, to the MAPE the SES the parameters of ? = 0.8 to give MAPE the smallest with a value of MAPE is 0.39. Based on the optimal then, we can conclude the SES the parameters of ? = 0.8 for the month of January 2016 is 389.510 bbl.

Kata Kunci : Forecasting, Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Simple Linear Regression, Avtur